Benner Cycle Theory: Can Pigs, Corn & Natural Cycles Predict Financial Market Movements?
Explore the Plausibility of Using Natural Cycles to Forecast Agricultural Commodity Prices and the Broader Financial Markets with the Benner Cycle Theory
Hello Sifters,
Good morning, todays newsletter we are going to explore the works of Samuel Benner. This picture went viral yesterday and I wanted to learn who Benner was and about it.
Samuel Benner, was a farmer who lived a long time ago. He noticed that the prices of things like corn and pigs went up and down in a pattern that repeated every 11 years, with big changes happening every 5-6 years.
He thought that this pattern had something to do with how the sun works. People still look at this pattern today to try to guess what might happen to prices in the future.
This is the argument against it, for it and the math explained behind it.
Examining the Argument Against Using Natural Cycles to Predict Financial Markets
The Benner Cycle, a theory that posits natural cycles can be used to predict market movements, has garnered attention from financial experts and analysts. However, its accuracy remains a contentious issue. Although Benner's observations are intriguing, there is no empirical evidence to support the theory's ability to predict market movements with a high degree of accuracy.
Moreover, historical data used to support the Benner Cycle predictions is limited and may not reflect current market conditions. Given the complexity of financial markets, it is unlikely that a single theory or model could accurately predict market movements over the long term. Thus, it is crucial to exercise caution when utilizing the Benner Cycle theory and to consider it as a supplementary tool to inform investment decisions.
Examining the Argument Pro-Benner Using Natural Cycles to Predict Financial Markets
The Benner Cycle theory, which posits that natural cycles can influence agricultural prices and by extension, the financial markets, has garnered some attention in economic circles. Agricultural commodities play a critical role in the global economy, and their prices are subject to various factors, including weather conditions, supply and demand, and government policies. It is, therefore, plausible that natural cycles could have an impact on commodity prices.
Although the evidence supporting the Benner Cycle theory is limited, some historical data shows promise in its potential accuracy. Notably, Benner predicted the panic year of 1873 and subsequent market trends with some success, indicating the theory's validity.
It is crucial for me to make known that the financial markets have grown increasingly intricate since Benner's time, with geopolitical events, central bank policies, and technological advancements playing significant roles in market movements. While the Benner Cycle theory may offer valuable insights into long-term market trends, it may not be an accurate predictor of short-term market fluctuations.
Unlocking the Secrets of the 100-Year-Old Mathematical Formula: Exploring the Science Behind Benner's Cycle Theory
The mathematical model behind the Benner Cycle theory, it is based on the observation of natural cycles and their influence on agricultural prices. Benner identified cycles in corn and pig prices that corresponded to the 11-year solar cycle and a 27-year cycle in pig iron prices. He believed that these cycles affected crop yields, revenue, supply and demand, and ultimately price.
Benner's theory suggests that these cycles repeat themselves over long periods, allowing for the prediction of market movements in the long term.
The Benner Cycle theory is based on the observation of natural cycles and their influence on agricultural prices. Benner identified two cycles
An 11-year cycle in corn and pig prices that corresponded to the 11-year solar cycle. The cycle has peaks every 5-6 years.
A 27-year cycle in pig iron prices that has lows every 11, 9, and 7 years and peaks every 8, 9, and 10 years.
Based on this theory, we can construct a mathematical model to visualize the cycles
Corn and Pig Cycle:
Y = a * sin(2pix/11) + b, where
Y is the price of corn and pig,
a is the amplitude of the cycle,
x is the year, and
b is the average price.
Pig Iron Cycle:
Y = c * sin(2pix/27) + d, where
Y is the price of pig iron,
c is the amplitude of the cycle,
x is the year, and
d is the average price.
We can plot these two cycles on a graph with the year on the x-axis and the price on the y-axis. The peaks and lows of each cycle will be represented by the high and low points on the graph.
From Boom to Bust: Unpacking the Pig Iron Cycle and Its Impact on the Financial Markets
The pig iron cycle is a 27-year cycle in the prices of pig iron, which is a crude form of iron that is obtained by smelting iron ore with coke and limestone in a blast furnace. The pig iron cycle was first identified by Samuel Benner, who noticed that the price of pig iron exhibited a cyclical pattern that repeated every 27 years. The cycle is characterized by lows every 11, 9, and 7 years and peaks every 8, 9, and 10 years.
Benner believed that the pig iron cycle was influenced by the same natural cycles that affected the prices of corn and pigs, namely the 11-year solar cycle. However, the exact reasons behind the pig iron cycle are still not fully understood and there may be other factors at play that influence the price of pig iron over time. Nevertheless, the pig iron cycle is still studied by some investors and traders as a potential predictor of future market movements.
Understanding the Corn and Pig Cycle: A Comprehensive Guide to Its Economic Significance
Benner noticed that the prices of corn and pigs exhibited a cyclical pattern that repeated every 11 years, with peaks occurring every 5-6 years.
Benner believed that the corn and pig cycle was influenced by the 11-year solar cycle, which affects crop yields and can lead to fluctuations in supply and demand, and thus, prices. Specifically, Benner believed that during years of high solar activity, crop yields would increase, leading to a surplus of corn and pigs and lower prices. Conversely, during years of low solar activity, crop yields would decrease, leading to a shortage of corn and pigs and higher prices.
While there is some debate over the exact relationship between solar activity and crop yields, the corn and pig cycle is still studied by some investors and traders as a potential predictor of future market movements, particularly in the agricultural commodities markets.
Assessing the Accuracy of the Benner Cycle Theory: A Look at Recent Performance
Today is March 21, 2023 should I buy according to the Benner Cycle?
While the theory suggests that we are just coming out of a panic cycle.
I don’t need to catch you up on the laundry list from banks to bonds to cause panic this year. Tomorrow as I am writing this, is the most important FOMC meeting in months.
Thank you for reading as always, make sure to share with a friend.
Download his book for free from the United States of America Archives: http://ia800904.us.archive.org/14/items/bennersprophecie00bennrich/bennersprophecie00bennrich.pdf
Your Friend,
Cody Krecicki
A.I. Financial Researcher